The Irregular Season

Notable Note

2011-10-20T12:13:00.000-07:00

My article "Stick and Move" (The Ring, June 2010) was selected as a "Notable" in the Best American Sports Writing 2011, an always-excellent volume.

http://www.houghtonmifflinbooks.com/hmh/bestamerican/sportsbookdetails

2011 NFL Mock Draft

2011-04-19T09:25:00.000-07:00

The draft this year is fascinating, as it smells a lot like 2006, when a bunch of hyped top-10 players bottomed out of the league. Mostly, it was because the skills of players like Vince Young, Reggie Bush, Matt Leinart didn't translate well to the NFL. 2011 is a classic "disaster draft," in which teams have high picks and money to burn, but the talent isn't there.

In fact, those great USC teams of the early 2000s have produced very little elite NFL talent. Maybe it was the protective, tolerant environment that Pete Carroll created, maybe it was his great coaching staff that concealed the considerable weaknesses of individual players. It's probably some combination. I'd call this confluence of factors, "the Behemoth Effect."

Anyway, here's my predictions for the first ten picks of the 2011 NFL Draft. The next ten to follow.

1. Carolina Panthers

The Panthers might open the season without both DeAngelo Williams (free agent) and Steve Smith (trade). They're going to have to go through the basement for a couple years in order to get to the penthouse eventually. Smart money is on Auburn quarterback Cam Newton, since new coach Ron Rivera (in previous coaching stop, with the Philadelphia Eagles) has seen what a mobile, versatile quarterback (Donovan McNabb) can do, if complemented by a strong defense.

2. Denver Broncos

Forget the on-field catastrophe of the Broncos, as coached by Josh McDaniels. Look at all those dreadful drafting decisions. Tim Tebow, Richard Quinn, Robert Ayers, Demaryius Thomas, Knowshon Moreno, Alphonso Smith. With four first-round choices, McDaniels came up with with role players and trade bait. Broncos fans must hope John Elway and John Fox can course-correct this franchise and fast. Alabama defensive tackle Marcell Dareus is the pick, but I'm still not convinced that Dareus is anything more than a 3-4 starter. He's not a sack artist or a dominator.

3. Buffalo Bills

Call them the Buffalo Blaines. The Bills will take Missouri quarterback Blaine Gabbert, whose stock is inflated at this point. The quarterbacks in this class are underwhelming, but Gabbert completes passes and has mobility. Some years that's all it takes.

4. Cincinnati Bengals

It's a shame that wide receiver Chad Johnson is buried in a franchise with so many problems. On a different team, you could easily see him having a career like Michael Irvin or . Johnson will get a protege in A.J. Green, which might mean a late-career resurgence for him, a la Cris Carter. But not if the Bengals refuse to replace Carson Palmer. Palmer is on the downside, even if he un-retires. Move forward, guys.

5. Arizona Cardinals

Von Miller's name is rushed to the podium. Only one year after Karlos Dansby fled, the Cardinals get an outside linebacker that will make their 3-4 defense hum. Don't be surprised if Miller racks up rookie-of-the-year honors and is considered one of the smartest choices in this draft five years from now.

6. Cleveland Browns

Mike Holmgren made a bizarre choice for head coach this off-season. Of course, when they were hired as head coaches, Sean Payton and Mike McCarthy were met with puzzlement. Then again, maybe Holmgren doesn't want a big personality to compete against. Holmgren likes collecting wide receivers in the draft, but I would guess that Robert Quinn is taken. Visions of legendary UNC pass rushers like Lawrence Taylor and Julius Peppers will be dancing through their heads.

7. San Francisco 49ers

I think this pick could be traded, as Harbaugh realizes the quarterback and cornerback value in this draft is later. Free agency will be abbreviated, so teams like the 49ers need to address all of their needs with college talent. If Harbaugh keeps the pick, it will be Patrick Peterson, a pick that they won't regret.

8. Tennessee Titans

Even though Nick Fairley seems like a great fit here, the Titans pass. Head coach Mike Munchak knows better than to doom his stint by sinking money and draft picks into unreliable players. Instead, they go with wide receiver Julio Jones. Jones is undervalued; as great as Green was at Georgia, Jones made more plays more consistently. He's not just a possession receiver either.

9. Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys could go for . I think Jerry Jones trades down and stumps everyone by taking running back Mark Ingram. Instantly, he solidifies a position that is in disarray. He might just go ahead and take Ingram here. As talented as Felix Jones is, he just might not be the grinder that this offense, explosive but inconsistent, needs.

10. Washington Redskins

The Redskins take offensive tackle Tyron Smith. The biggest problem with this team was not the quarterback play or the black hole at running back. It's a fact that Chris Samuels, a great, under-appreciated player, has never been replaced. On the other hand, the Redskins might take Nick Fairley and just start collecting troubled defensive tackles from the SEC.

NFL: Week Five News

2010-10-09T11:48:00.000-07:00

The Patriots Way: New England is 3-1, lifted by great special teams (2 touchdowns, a blocked punt, and a blocked field goal last Monday) and a very diverse group of receivers. But they traded away Randy Moss, who I've always claimed was the closest thing to an "unstoppable" presence in the NFL, for a third- and seventh-round picks. The Patriots Way is part football strategy, part stock market speculation. In this case, Belichick dumped a commodity when its value is overrated, his competitors panic, and the coach sees a long-term/short-term benefit to maximizing other resources.

Impressive Starts: The Jets are also 3-1, and the loss was a one-point game which they might have been able to win had Dustin Keller not made an enormous route-running gaffe. Sanchez has a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 8-to-0. Though I was skeptical of the team--too loud, not enough roster depth--they have handily dispatched all three of their division rivals. You also have to applaud the Kansas City Chiefs, who patiently built their team through the draft: Glenn Dorsey, Dexter McCluster, Javier Arenas, Brandon Carr, Brandon Flowers, and Eric Berry look like a strong core that should be able to compete at a high level for the next decade. Among the .500 pack that might make a run includes the Miami Dolphins and the entire NFC West.

Looking Forward to the 2011 Draft: The Buffalo Bills are in pace for the No. 1 overall spot in the draft. Chan Gailey is overmatched as an NFL head coach, though he has coaxed good performances from Ryan Fitzpatrick. Who might they take? Quarterbacks Ryan Mallett or Terrelle Pryor? Linebacker Greg Jones? Bills fans deserve better than speculating on next year's draft in early October.

George Steinbrenner (1930-2010)

2010-07-13T15:15:00.000-07:00

Yankees owner George Steinbrenner died on July 13. He drove some of the major changes in sports over the last four decades. He meddled with his team’s chemistry, bringing in high-priced players and calling out stars in the press. His Yankees teams won 7 titles between 1973 and 2010, which is remarkable by almost any standard except the one Steinbrenner demanded. Sports franchise owners like Mark Cuban (NBA), Dan Snyder (NFL), and Jerry Jones (NFL) are in the same mold. The following are my favorite six Steinbrenner factoids.

Infamously, he fired and hired Billy Martin five times separate times.
In 1990, Steinbrenner was banned “for life” from major league baseball by former Commissioner Fay Vincent. The penalty was levied because Steinbrenner had paid almost $50,000 for “dirt” on a former player. The “life” banishment lasted three years.
Steinbrenner’s first franchise, the Cleveland Pipers of the American Basketball League, lasted a single season, as did the entire league.
While an assistant coach under Woody Hayes at Ohio State, Steinbrenner won a national championship.
After buying the Yankees franchise in 1973, for only $8.8 million, Steinbrenner instituted a policy regulating the length of player’s hair. All-Star players like Don Mattingly and David Wells have received fines or even suspensions for “hair offenses.”
Actors that have played Steinbrenner include Larry David (on “Seinfeld”) and Oliver Platt (“Bronx is Burning”).

James, Wade, and Bosh Land in Miami

2010-07-09T16:12:00.001-07:00

The biggest disappointment for me is that it’s Miami. If you believe in fairness in these things, that city just doesn’t deserve it. Miami’s a notoriously bad sports town. Even when the Marlins were winning World Series, they could hardly sell out. When the University of Miami’s football team or the Miami Dolphins drop in the win column, so does the interest of their fans.

It’s a city that, for better or worse, will ignore you unless you win big. And, if you win big, they ignore you anyway.

The enthusiasm of Cleveland fans has been disproportionate to the success of its franchises. Their title hopes in the 1990s were squashed by Michael Jordan’s Bulls teams. The Cleveland Indians held the MLB sellout record, at 455 games, between 2001, the end of the streak, and 2008, when Boston surpassed them. The Indians have three AL Penants, since winning their last World Series in 1948. When the Cavaliers won the lottery seven years ago, and the Akron-based “chosen one” was available, divine providence seemed to have rewarded their enduring faith.

Unfortunately, fairness has nothing to do with it. Miami freed up the cap space, and Dwayne Wade went out and convinced his Olympic teammates to join him in South Beach. What might define Wade’s career is his willingness to “kiss the ring” of the ringless king. James made a spectacle of his decision, making his decision to abandon Cleveland all the more embarrassing and emphatic. Clearly, James’s ego far outweighs his production to this point, and the chemistry in Miami will depend on whether Bosh and Wade, and the entire Heats organization, are able to placate him.

Two Prodigies at a Crossroads

2010-06-24T13:48:00.000-07:00

In the dog days of summer, two prodigies have arrived at a decisive moment in their careers. Stephen Strasburg debuted for the Washington Nationals, and LeBron James entered NBA free agency. Both have had an unusual role, as highly regarded first-round picks, on their teams. And, now, they might be the most important players in their respective sports in the second decade of the 21^st century.

The Cleveland Cavaliers have hitched the franchise’s hopes to James, and the Washington Nationals will depend on Strasburg to overcome the youth and lack of talent around him. Each franchise has weak leadership. If James leaves Cleveland or Strasburg is a bust, either team could leave their respective cities in the next half-decade.

ESPN has made each athlete, the 22-year-old Strasburg and the 25-year old James, a news category. Watch the ticker at the bottom of the monolithic network’s broadcast to get the latest in tea leaves, innuendos, and rumors on either athlete. In fact, the 24-hour sports channel has made a cottage industry of hyping these prospects.

The Hall of Fame chatter, led by ESPN talking heads, has already started for each of them. Despite the talk, neither Strasburg nor James is the most talented prospects at their respective stages of development. They’re just the most talented in an era of media saturation and hype-as-product sensationalism.

The appeal of both athletes stems from their status as brilliant prodigies. Oddly enough, Strasburg’s debut against the last-place Pirates drew viewer interest on the same night of game three of the NBA Finals, which boasted as many as six Hall of Famers.

Even better than acknowledging when a player achieves something special is acknowledging that he could do something special, five or ten years from now. I’ve decided to reserve my astonishment for the day when commentators predict Hall of Fame greatness from sonograms or forecast future drafts based on Little League highlights.

Unfortunately, the hype seems to have been mostly destructive for James. Almost everyone agrees that he has refused to be coached by the Cavaliers staff, and the franchise’s ownership has mostly allowed James and his entourage to have their run of the facilities. Though a force of nature sprinting toward the basket, he’s content to become an average jump-shooter.

James is a highlight-reel talent and rises to almost every challenge. He’s already one of the five best players in the league and an annual MVP finalist. But even his greatest admirers have to wonder if he’ll ever be historically great, in the rarefied category of Michael Jordan, Magic Johnson, or Bill Russell. Nevertheless, I suspect that his flight in free agency probably won’t bring a title to whoever wins the sweepstakes.

James’s real long-term legacy might be in marketing, where his charisma is on full display. The basketball wunderkind took the Michael Jordan book on corporate sponsorship and added a few chapters. Jordan was basically a well-paid employee of Nike and Hanes. Unlike Jordan, James is basically an investor in the brands he endorses. And he embodies 21^st century “cool” in a way that Dwayne Wade, Dwight Howard, or Kobe Bryant will never be able to.

Strasburg, on the other hand, is an unusual pheonom. That is, the marketing potential is not really there. Strasburg will get the endorsements if he performs well, but I doubt he will ever become the face of an advertising campaign or his sport.

In his first start, on June 8, Strasburg pitched seven innings and struck out 14. It’s already one of the finest outings in the Nationals brief history. The demure Californian displayed a fastball upwards of 100 mph, with great placement. He attracts attention from baseball fans and outsiders. Even if you’re not interested, you’re likely to be bombarded with his stats until you are.

But Strasburg’s arrival alone brings very little other than hope to the Nationals. Over eighty-three years ago, Washington’s greatest baseball player ever retired. Walter Johnson was a reserved, lanky, and blue-eyed right-hander, just like Strasburg, who suffered years of losing on the Nationals (in their first iteration), before winning a World Series in his 17^th season. In very different eras, both Johnson and Strasburg have inspired curiosity and fear from colleagues and viewers from day one.

Will it take that many years for the contemporary pheonom’s Nationals to be within reach of a championship? Will James seriously compete for an NBA championship in Cleveland, Chicago, or Los Angeles? Most importantly, will either of them come close to fulfilling the hype that Strasburg’s debut and James’s flirtation with free agency inspired?

Taking into consideration the historical trends and my instincts, my answers would be probably, maybe, and no. But perhaps not in that order.

"The Stick and Move"

2010-06-05T10:10:00.000-07:00

Just published in "The Ring" magazine is my article on prison boxing in Southeastern Louisiana.

I picked up my copy about a week ago, at Barnes and Noble. It's got a memorable cover image of Manny Pacquiao.

The match between Clifford Etienne and Mike Tyson (left) plays a minor part in the story.

NFL Draft Recap: Players Who Will Outperform Players Drafted Ahead of Them

2010-05-22T12:33:00.000-07:00

LeBron's out of the playoffs, the MLB season is in its early pages, and , so I decided to make the unlikely decision to post on the NFL Draft, about a month after it took place. I'd prefer to talk about my Hornets landing an elite player at the top of the NBA Draft, but apparently basketball in New Orleans has received another body blow.

Jimmy Clausen, Carolina Panthers

"The Mile-High Messiah"? Try "Tebench." I've seen Tebow in about twenty games, from his first college touchdown pass against the LSU Tigers to his last, against the Cincinnati Bearcats. Forget his drunken footwork or his mediocre foot speed. When he threw the ball, it was rarely a spiral. Not only will the throwing window in the NFL become narrower, but Tebow is going to have to throw a "catchable" pass. The NFL is about precision and fundamentals, and Tebow has neither.

Clausen, on the other hand, was seen as the anti-Tebow. He was an arrogant kid, who arrived in South Bend in a stretch Hummer and announced his ambition to win four Heismans and four national championships. His personality is a big turnoff, and conjures up memories of Ryan Leaf.

But Clausen also has what it takes to win close games, which is all I ask for from a starting NFL quarterback. See 2009 Purdue, see 2009 Michigan State, see a handful of other games in which Charlie Weis's clock management doomed the Fighting Irish. When/if John Fox is fired and Bill Cowher is brought in, Clausen's potential will be a major draw.

Aaron Hernandez, New England Patriots

This UF player was dominant last season, the only player that I really feared after Dan Mullins left Gainesville. He was healthier throughout his career than Rob Gronkowski (2nd round, Patriots) or Jermaine Gresham (1st round, Bengals). But after watching Tom Brady eviscerate Benjamin Watson, a former first-round pick at the position, for poor route-running, you wonder how Hernandez, who has a similar problem and ran a lot of screens and short outlet routes during his career, will mesh with Brady.

Charles Brown, New Orleans Saints

Left tackle Charles Brown was another Trojan who came into college football with so much hype that any career short of all-time greatness would be disappointing. Like Joe McKnight and Everson Griffen, Brown became a serviceable, occasionally great, college player who could become a better professional player. Brown blocked for John David Booty, Mark Sanchez, and a freshman, Matt Barkley, during his career, so I'm still not convinced that he was held back by the players around him.

Brown was drafted behind Trent Williams (1st round, Washington Redskins), who has the dubious virtue of being able to play right or left tackle, and Bryan Bulaga (1st round, Green Bay Packers), who is this year's Mystery Meat. Re: Williams, why is being able to play two positions valuable, when one position has so much more value than the other. If Williams is not playing left tackle for the Redskins in five years, he's a bust at number four overall. And, is Bulaga the next Robert Gallery?

The Suns Make Disciplined and Elegant Protest

2010-05-05T20:23:00.000-07:00

On Wednesday night, the Suns choose to don the "Los Suns" jersey, as a sign of protest to Arizona's new law.

The Suns are owned by Robert Sarver, whose family built a hoteling empire in Tucson. Sarver himself made a fortune in banking. Though the owner has gotten flack for frugality, Sarver made a classy and brilliant move here, by introducing these jerseys during a playoff game.

Arizona was also subject to another protest in 1991. The NFL moved Super Bowl XXVII to the Rose Bowl in Pasadena as a reaction against the state's decision to reject recognition of Martin Luther King Day.

How to Deal with a Busted NCAA Bracket

2010-03-25T13:33:00.000-07:00

In the middle of the most exciting four-day weekend in recent memory, you tipped over your Abita Root Beer and the nacho cheese. Your NCAA bracket, patiently researched and completed, is now covered in a gooey coat of rotel dip. You lovingly scrape away the damage to find....devastation. Kansas to win it all? Villanova to get past the first weekend? Good Ali Farokhmanesh, Batman!

So you wish you had left the bracket beneath that cheese varnish, where you could estimated having all sixteen teams left. Now the manager in your office that picked Michigan State “because I drove a Ford in college” and Cornell “Go Poison Ivy League!” is looking like a sports Nostradamus.

I would be lying if I told you I hadn’t heard stories like yours before. The Great Sports Fan Brought Low is one of the most cliched and common theme in all of sportswriting (see Bartman, Steve; Jack Nicholson in Wolf). Let me offer some advice. To complement that advice, I’ve chosen some quotes from Yogi Berra, the great major league catcher who had more home runs than strikeouts in a season five times. Like Berra, take the long view: there’ll be more hits than strikeouts in your picking career. I hope.

Put it into perspective

"Slump? I ain't in no slump... I just ain't hitting.” -Yogi Berra

Look on the bright side. You didn’t unveil your bracket to national coverage in the White House Map Room.

Barrack Obama’s bracket is devastated right now. He predicted that the Kansas Jayhawks would win it all and Villanova as a Final Four team. Today, he is ranked 106,679 in ESPN’s rankings.

Of course, Obama will find it a lot easier to put a positive spin on his weekend. The President also took some time to watch a health care bill, pass a House of Representatives vote. It’s been a seemingly unreachable ambition of Presidents, Republican and Democrat, since the Roosevelt administration. That would be Theodore Roosevelt (1901-1908).

Become nostalgic

"Ninety percent of this game is half mental."

Think back on all your past achievements. The game-winning shot in a pickup game in the seventh grade, or that improbable touchdown pass you threw in Madden.

No one can take away the year you picked twelve of the last sixteen, and that was after Duke broke your heart by losing on a buzzer-beater. When colleagues spoke about your picks, it was in hushed tones, as if they were witnessing firsthand the Aurora Borealis. Now, your bracket has the stench of a loser, and you’ve become the Augur Winless.

Then again, you can always learn something from this year’s shortcomings.

There’s Always Next Year

“The future ain’t what it used to be.”

There’s 355 days until you get to pick your bracket again. You’ll experience some triumphs and defeats. You’ll grasp some life milestones, like 1,000 days worked or 500 checks cashed in. In the meantime, it’s important that you keep your focus on what matters: next year’s bracket.

Do some soul-searching. Why favor the “chalk” so much? There seems to some favoritism given to Big East schools on your bracket. Gauge how teams began the year (Northern Iowa was ranked 28th overall, in some polls) and how they ended it (Villanova’s slump), but don’t fall into traps where you entirely disregard the potential represented by the former or the impermanence of the latter.

Start researching early. Rarely are you going to think, while filling out your bracket, “I wish I knew less about University of Wisconsin at Oshkosh.”

NCAA Tournament First Round

2010-03-18T16:44:00.000-07:00

Show Me the Tourney!

At one point in the season, both Ole Miss and Mississippi State were both ranked. Today, though, they’ve begun preparations for the college basketball’s consolation prize. Ole Miss just didn’t do well enough in a mediocre SEC, and the Bulldogs have to be wondering “What if?” What if Renardo Sidney had qualified? What if that scholarship offer had been extended to another player? What if Kentucky had stuck it out another year with Billy Gillispie or failed to land John Calipari (and his star-studded 2009 recruiting class)?

And, of course, they were on the wrong side of two of the finest games in college basketball. On Sunday, Kentucky pulled off another overtime victory to send Mississippi State to the NIT. Twice this season, State should have beaten John Calipari’s squad. Fans of the Bulldogs can take solace in the fact that teams as inexperienced as Kentucky don’t get far in the tournament. (Calipari’s Memphis teams that went to the Final Four were led by two-year and three-year veterans, though they were lifted by super-freshmen Derrick Rose and Tyreke Evans.) Also, Calipari’s shortcomings in game management has cost his team a national title before, namely his 2008 National Championship.

This year’s NCAA Tournament should be special. Every year, it seems that my attempt at rationalizing my picks exposes some deep counter-intuitive, or perhaps irrational, trends. (After this column, I’m going to take solace in an article by myth-maker of upstream swimmers and Louisiana native, writer Michael Lewis.) My entire bracket is posted on my blog, the Irregular Season, and these are the highlights.

#8 Texas over #9 Wake Forest: For not entirely explicable reasons, I have Texas going deep in the tournament. Recently, they’ve been blown out by Texas A & M and Baylor, and perhaps the Longhorns shouldn’t even be in the tournament. But I believe in a team that was 17-0, with victories over Michigan State and Pittsburgh. They remind me of Jim Valvano’s 1983 North Carolina State team.

#7 BYU over #10 Florida: Since Florida won back-to-back titles, the program has been slipping. The reasons vary from bad-apple recruits to an improving SEC conference. BYU comes in as a talented, overlooked team and a good pick for this year’s Cinderella. In fact, there’s smart money on BYU going deep in the Tournament, based on statistical trends, though I have them losing in the second round.

#9 Louisville over #8 California: This pick might be prejudiced, since I’ve seen Louisville play often over the last few years. Still, the Cardinals have a misleadingly mediocre record in a premier conference, the Big East, and drew a very favorable matchup, in terms of location. They play the Golden Bears, a West Coast team, in Jacksonville.

#10 Missouri over #7 Clemson: The ACC just hasn’t been very good, and the Big Ten is better than it’s given credit for. Clemson feasted on overrated teams, while Missouri has been well-tested. The winner of this game gets to play West Virginia, coached by talented, troubled Bob Huggins and loaded with talented and troubled players. If WVU goes deep, you can go ahead and cue ESPN’s token “Redemption” feature.

Must-Watch Games in the First Two Rounds

#1 Kentucky versus #16 East Tennessee State is the only 1-16 match-up worth your time, if for no other reason than to see how John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins respond to the tournament’s unique pressures. #7 Oklahoma State versus #10 Georgia Tech is a match-up of mid-tier power-conference teams. The winner of this game has a clear path to the Sweet Sixteen. Could the Ivy League win its first NCAA Tournament game in recent memory when #12 Cornell upsets #5 Temple?

Teams That Could Surprise (and Disappoint): #7 BYU, #12 Utah State, and #4 Purdue have been underestimated and could make a deep run. On the other end of the spectrum, Villanova and Notre Dame are overrated. Saint Mary’s was robbed of a spot in the Tournament last year and could find their way to the Elite Eight, by defeating them both.

NCAA Tournament

2010-03-15T14:32:00.000-07:00

Here's my picks:

Here's my bracket picks:

Bill Russell vs. Wilt Chamberlain

2010-03-11T13:20:00.000-08:00

I wanted to note that these "sports debates" columns concern only debates that are "two-pronged" or binary. That is to say, I won't have a "Best Second Baseman Ever" entry. Rather, I'll be posting entries that break down into either / or categories, such as...

Better Player: Bill Russell or Wilt Chamberlain

This debate transcends an interest in basketball, because (a.) Bill Russell won 11 NBA championships in thirteen years, and (b.) Chamberlain was a dominant scorer, with the only 100-point game ever. As time goes by, both of these achievements stand as almost untouchable, but not entirely unbelievable, given a few factors. During Russell's era, there were almost a third of the teams in the NBA today, and getting to a finals (and winning a championship) were much easier than in the current long plow. In terms of Chamberlain's accomplishment, though he didn't have the benefit of a three-point opportunity, he also had a coach and a team that deferred to him, to a fault.

Basically, the debate comes down to a number of biases that typically have little to do with Russell or Chamberlain. There's the defense vs. offense bias. The Lakers or Celtics bias. The sullen superstar (Russell) or the gregarious trash-talker (Chamberlain). Which makes the discussion all the more compelling, of course. (For the record, I have always leaned toward Russell for those reasons, and more.)

Few fans actually remember Russell, and, when he does poke his head out, he makes inexplicable public speeches, such as "Keven Garnett more than my own son!" or the like. When LeBron James recently decided to change numbers, he chose the 6 jersey, to honor Michael Jordan (and his 23). James and others didn't seem to mind that Russell was being slighted for Jordan. Chamberlain, on the other hand, has always been on the edge of the public's consciousness.

First Entry: The Great Sports Debates

2010-03-09T17:25:00.000-08:00

I was reading an archived Slate.com review of Buzz Bissinger’s Three Nights in August. I haven’t actually gotten to Bissinger’s book, an account of a three-game series between the Cardinals and the Cubs from the eyes of manager Tony LaRussa, but the review fascinated me. The article, whose author skewered Joe Girardi, was brimming with contempt for Kissinger’s anti-Moneyball, old-school ranting. This got me thinking about some of the great ongoing sports debates. (It also doesn’t hurt that I’m still working on Bill Simmons’s tome, The Book of Basketball, which seems to have a list for every miniscule interest: Top Ten Freeloading Point Guards, Top Fifty Centers From Southern Idaho, etc. I mean that as a deep compliment, by the way.) I think I’m going to put together a list, with one entry per day of the ten greatest sports debates, and then rank them at the end. So here’s the first entry:

The Moneyball Crew vs. Traditionalists

Since Michael Lewis published Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game in 2003, a theoretical divide has cut through most baseball fans. There’s the school of thought (that Lewis, in fact, shortchanged) that managers have a larger role in producing a winner than a general manager and that RBI, steals, and batting average are high-value stats. Lewis, and Oakland general manager Billy Beane, went on to criticize these “traditionalists” by foregrounding their subjective biases, prizing on-base percentage, and seem to minimize the importance of in-game player management. Frankly, I admire Lewis’s book, but its influence on me has less to do with my thinking on baseball and more to do with my thinking on “group think” and player evaluation. In the intervening conversations between the sides, traditionalists have pointed out Beane’s shortcomings in wins and losses, while the Moneyball crew have pointed out the success of his proteges (including Epstein of the Red Sox).

In Which I Examine My Reticence to Embrace the Olympics

2010-03-07T21:44:00.000-08:00

Of all sporting events, it’s the Olympics that always disappoint me. The disappointment is always preceded by an earnest attempt at trying it “one more time:” you have to concede that the shortcoming was your own.

But the disappointment is the same. As it is with health-care debate, Chinese food, and the television show 24.

Perhaps, I’ve wondered, it’s the strange choices that broadcasters make. This year, NBC delayed airing events and then puzzled everyone by capping the event with none other than. . . the season premiere of The Marriage Ref. (Re: television show plugs. What is a product plug, if I actually bash the product? A blug?)

On the other hand, there was that 1,400-year dry spell of corporate endorsements and effusive celebratory speeches and ESPN highlights. Now, there’s an Olympics--winter, summer, gay, special, metaphorical--every six or seven weeks.

Maybe, it has to do with the athletes. Unlike basketball prodigies and other sports figures, Olympic athletes toil in seeming futility for a dozen years, until the breathing beast of 24-7 news coverage turns its attention to them. Lindsey Vonn, the chosen starlet of the 2010 Winter Games, is remarkable for how perfectly average she is. I felt the same way about Michael Phelps: could this incredible talent and enormous stage have happened to someone else?

The way Olympic athletes take the biggest stage of their lives just doesn’t fit our moment any more. For a while, Vonn, Phelps, and, in another sport, Kobe Bryant have tried to milk the international sports star image / multimillion-dollar product spokesman mold that Michael Jordan established two decades ago. Restrained, ordinary, bland.

It could be said that Vonn and Phelps have a different set of pressures in individual sports (and under-appreciated sports, at that). Neither of them has to inspire trust in teammates or incorporate themselves in larger team dynamics. Charisma is not something that Vonn has to cultivate, or at least not in the same way that a Drew Brees or Brett Favre do.

Then you have LeBron James’s winking post-modernism. Here’s an athlete who will experiment with his image in Nike commercials and parody the media pose in his pre-game rituals. That’s an athlete that will connect to an audience that has tired of the rote habits of Jordan’s crass, measured image. That’s a 21st century athlete.

Records, Records, Records

2010-03-02T13:56:00.000-08:00

Records have a rare currency in the sports world. The mystique of the unprecedented, the “unbroken record,” surrounds any and all athletic competition. Seemingly, these records offer us a quantifiable method to weigh achievement and frame moments in an historical sequence. But then the records themselves gain a foggy mystery and an academic remoteness. The mystique of vibrant sports figures begin to dim, beside the solemnly collected and assiduously studied data. Records themselves become the Rosetta Stone for understanding the language of sports.

In terms of the mystique of records, the last three years have been a revelatory period in speed sailing. In October of 2008, a French kitesurfer, Sebastien Cattelan, cracked an unprecedented 50 knots at the Lüderitz Speed Challenge. Within a month, the 50-knot threshold became the equivalent of a four-minute mile. At once undreamt-of, now suddenly very attainable. More fascinating than the record itself is another Frenchman, Alain Thébault, a defiant, self-proclaimed “Icarus of the sea,” who has pushed the record to 51.4 knots, as of September 2009. When our historical consciousness fades temporarily, the mystique of our “Icarus” grows.

By this summer, the NBA might see a very different barometer of “unprecedence” forged. Last summer, Boston Celtics power forward Rasheed Wallace was brought in to compliment the defensive prowess of the team. Celtics fans also hoped his diminished playing time would keep his intensity high but his ejections and technical fouls low. Throughout his fifteen years in the league, Wallace has most resembled Thor, the mythological, thunder-clapping, and bearded Anglo-Saxon.

When introduced to those fans, Wallace said that he would accept happily any role that coach Doc Rivers would assign him, as long as it led to victories. Mostly, that’s exactly what he’s done for the aging Eastern Conference contender. This NBA season, Wallace has averaged almost 24 minutes, but with an astonishing fourteen technical fouls. For every five quarters he spends on the court, Wallace gets a technical foul. Likely, he will fall short of his own regular-season record of 41 technicals in a season. But, if he remains on pace (and on the floor), Wall will set a new record for most technical-fouls-per-minutes-on-the-floor. A dubious record, indeed.

A dubious new standard in the world of college recruiting has been estabished, as well. In the first week of February, the University of Florida set a precedent for monopolizing ESPNU 150 recruits: he brought in 15 of them, including four in the top ten. Aside from the usual moral qualms I have about the insulated and upside-down world of college recruiting, I consider the mania around National Signing Day especially misplaced. In fact, Meyer’s recruiting achievement illustrates all the sticky problems with record-breaking.

First, collecting talent does not ordain winning seasons or grabbing championships. Since Pete Carroll’s arrival, the USC program has dominated recruiting, but has never matched the success of 2005, which is almost a half-decade ago. The real significance of accumulating stud high school players or home runs or speed sailing records might pale beside the furor that the topic initially raises.

 Secondly, and more importantly, you have to consider the “Michael E. Mann Factor.” In 2001, Mann, a celebrated climatologist and professor at Penn State University, crafted a graph (known as “the hockey stick graph”) that gave a powerfully visual weight to the polemical environmentalist’s position of global warming. It would feature prominently in Al Gore’s book and movie An Inconvenient Truth. Last year, though, private emails sent by Mann and circulated on the web seemed to give credence to the fact that he (and perhaps other climatologists) had distorted evidence to verify the existence of climate change and alarm the public. Now, this discovery does not shake the scientific foundation for climate change research, but it does illustrate how even someone professionally invested in objectivity can be willing to distort evidence to fit a preconceived notion or even a widely-held professional consensus.

Let me explain how the Michael E. Mann Factor weighs in college recruiting. A consensus is established around a program or a coach, simply as a talent evaluator or as talent developer. Since the evidence on a recruit’s ability is weak, recruits rise and fall depending on how their stock is graded by those very coaches and programs. As at a roulette table, three-star athletes are transformed into five-star guys, and five-star players slip into mediocrity.

Again, a consensus is formed around a recruit and even a region (Florida is talent-rich, Connecticut is not). Since Florida coach Urban Meyer is a great recruiter, the ESPNU and Rivals.com recruitniks will always rate his classes highly. Even though their previous estimations had those same athletes rated low. (As long as he happens to win championships, too.) And, since the recruitniks will always rate him highly, the legend of coach Urban Meyer as a great recruiter grows. (It also helps that he lauds his recruits, like a gushing mother hen. Meyer has suggested this 2010 crop is, to a person, the finest individuals, the brightest academic stars, and the best football players available, before they ever play a meaningful down or attend a college class. Remember, too, that the last time he brought in classes this talented, 2006 and 2007, those athletes accumulated a collective rap sheet of about twenty arrests.)

Ironically, this is how great programs are brought low: hubris. Just ask Bobby Bowden.

Super Bowl Coverage

2010-02-12T14:27:00.000-08:00

Here's an article I wrote for the Alexandria Town Talk. It's about the defensive line coach, Bill Johnson, who is an alum of Northwestern State University:

Bill Johnson Turns Around Saints D-Line

Super Bowl

2010-02-03T16:35:00.000-08:00

There's a number of excellent articles out there on the upcoming game. The New York Times has one on the Saints' remarkable ability to strip the ball and another on the politically outspoken Scott Fujita. Reuters reports that the EA Sports game Madden 2010 has the Saints winning. Also, I have a column in the Jackson Free Press's Super Bowl issue. The link is below:

The People's Victory

Free Agency and the Saints

2010-01-26T14:39:00.001-08:00

Below is a link to a great article on the Saints' history in free agency. I would squabble that the Joe Horn signing should probably be at No.3, over QB Bobby Hebert, even though Horn blew up his team's chemistry. But, then again, Hebert crippled his team during a key season by holding out (1990). After just a single season, I'm ready to put safety Darren Sharper up there as well. He changed the dynamic of the defense by making teams pay for guessing against Gregg Williams's schemes.

Greatest Free Agency Signings in Saints History

Conference Championships

2010-01-24T09:44:00.001-08:00

AFC Championship: New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts

Schadenfreude: pleasure felt from someone else's misfortune. The Colts gave the Jets a bid to the playoffs, and now the Jets stand in their way from grabbing another Super Bowl appearance. Would a Colts victory justify Caldwell's decision to pull his starters and give up an undefeated season in Week 16? No. Would a Colts loss confirm the fans' disgust with the decision? No. Might a loss precipitate a locker room insurrection similar to Bill Callahan's stint with the Raiders? Yes. The Colts win, though, 40-21.

NFC Championship: Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints

This is the collision course matchup that everyone saw from about Week 3. The Vikings have been more variable in production than any other team. They lost to Pittsburg, Arizona, Carolina, and Chicago. Those teams combined for one playoff appearance this year. The Saints have pulled off some great comebacks and have back a handful of key players from injuries last week. The presence of tight end Jeremy Shockey and the production of running back Reggie Bush are very important.

New Orleans has the technically perfect quarterback (Drew Brees), a great marketing campaign ("Who Dat nation"), and an explosive offense and defense. Minnesota can claim the world's worst Prince anthem, the oldest starting playoff quarterback, and Adrian the Great. I take the Vikings, 27-14.

NFL Playoffs: Divisional Round

2010-01-16T11:51:00.000-08:00

The first round of the NFL playoffs was very disappointing. Each game was lost because of a lack of discipline and enthusiasm. The Patriots, the Bengals, and the Eagles were disinterested embarrassments. The final game of the weekend (Packers at Cardinals) proved a Madden-like scoring bonanza, with an added bit of controversy when the officials missed a final-play face mask penalty. Today, the final eight enter the tournament.

Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints

Cardinals quarterback Kurt Warner is coming in very hot, and the Saints have turned it off the last three weeks. I remember watching Warner during his "Greatest Show on Turf" in St. Louis, and I disliked his attitude and lack of toughness. This is the case of the unstoppable force and immovable object. Drew Brees and the Saints offense get hot in the second half but early sacks and turnovers haunt them.

The Cardinals win, 31-21.

Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts

The Colts have gotten grief for turning it off this year, with the possibility of repeating mistakes of 2005, 2007, and 2008. Quarterback Joe Flacco deserves a world of credit for guiding him team deep into the playoffs in his first two years, and he does more at this point in his career than Ben Roethlisberger. During the Colts' title run in 2006, Manning beat the Ravens, relying mostly on his defense to force Steve McNair's red zone errors. In fact, he Ravens don't have a lot of success against Manning to this point at all.

But I see the Ravens steeling a victory in overtime, 20-14.

New York Jets at San Diego Chargers

Mark Sanchez has struggled since Week 3, and his exuberant SoCal personality by a dour frown. ("Mark Sanchez face" is the expression a quarterback has when a poor offensive coordinator shits in his cereal.) Norv Turner has proven to be a great hire for a Chargers franchise that needed a smart, big-picture head honcho. They exploit the weaknesses in the Jets offense and don't give up easy first downs by playing undisciplined defense (as the Bengals did). The Chargers win, 37-10.

Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings

Give credit to Brett Favre: he picked a vehicle with speed and power as a final career moment. The Vikings great defense, though aged, have been overlooked in the ongoing Favre debacle. Before last week, Dallas had not won a playoff game since 1996. The Cowboys start another losing streak. Vikings win, 20-6.

New Column

2010-01-16T11:46:00.000-08:00

Here's a new article on chess:

Why Chess Still Matters

Poll Results

2010-01-13T12:14:00.001-08:00

The poll results are in! Mike Leach's career at Texas Tech (2000-2009) has been considered by the loyal readers of the Irregular Season blog, and he has come out pretty favorably. Seventy percent of readers thought Leach would be remembered as "the Rising Star," with no readers suggesting he was "the Also-Ran." Fifteen percent of readers thought he was "the Innovator," and another fifteen readers suggesting he was "the Mad Scientist."

Leach spent a number of years under Hal Mumme, whose career slowly declined after coaching Kentucky to a few bowl games and Tim Couch to No. 1 over-all draft status. (Mumme coached at Southeastern and New Mexico State and now McMurry University. Leach has sent a number of solid players to the pros (Wes Welker, Michael Crabtree, Louis Vasquez), and competed for the Big 12 and the national championship in 2008. Smart Football's Chris Brown called him the coordinator he most enjoyed watching call a game. During his national-title push, 60 Minutes did a fascinating interview with him (linked below). Leach's favorite kind of weather? Raining mud.

Arenas and Dangerous: A Review of A Public Response

2010-01-11T17:03:00.000-08:00

Gilbert Arenas has had a quick fall from grace among the national media. Three years ago, he rose to prominence as a quirky star, in the mold of Pete Maravich, and grabbed a $111 million dollar contract. He spent two years battling injuries, and last month it was discovered that he brought multiple guns into his Washington Wizards' locker room.

As the story has been told, Arenas grew up in an unstructured home, after his mother abandoned him in a crack house. He played under Lute Olsen at Arizona, and then broke into the NBA. During the Wizards' deep run in the 2006-2007, he was a clutch performer that stole victories with last-minute shots.

His rise and fall have inspired a number of great columns. Unfortunately, a 2006 column written by Fred Barnes is called "The Assassin." It typifies the "Pete Maravich angle."

The reaction against Arenas is founded on the genuine stupidity and criminal stupidity of Arenas. But, typical of knee jerk reactions, there's something dishonest about some of the responses. The smartest and most humane criticism I've read is by Mike Wise, at the Washington Post. In his column, he examines how Arenas got to his current situation. Wise has also added a discussion of the fallout.

All-Time Player I Would Start a Franchise With

2010-01-10T11:18:00.000-08:00

Throw a rock and you'll hit a list of "Best Football Players Ever," "Best Quarterbacks Ever," etc. I'm always fascinated by the criteria (championships rings, or their effect on the game, or their ability to raise a team's performance). I decided to give another question a go: "Which player would I take in an All-Time Draft?" I could have Jim Brown, Joe Montana, Tom Brady, Jerry Rice, or Dick Butkus, but I would take the player Vince Lombardi called "the finest player I've ever coached:" Forrest Gregg.

Gregg played left tackle for Lombardi's Packers from 1956 to 1971, before finishing his career with a Super Bowl VI-winning Dallas Cowboys team. With the Packers, he won five other championships, leading the way for Jim Taylor and Paul Hornung and creating a pocket for Bart Starr. He played 188 consecutive games, a record. He was powerful enough to handle Hall of Fame defensive end Deacon Jones, when they played in one of the great individual match-ups, and athletic enough to seal the edge on those famous sweeps. The Jones-Gregg battles encompassed a great contrast in player styles, with Jones's bluster and passion and Gregg's dispassionate consistency.

Granted, he played left tackle in an era before the era of dominant pass-rushers. But I've seen enough to think he could have adapted his game in any ear or any scheme. I particularly like the idea of building a franchise from the offensive line. Maybe I should have taken Anthony Munoz, but I would be skeptical of his ability to stay healthy for ten years. Remember Munoz failed a physical before the 1980 draft. (As it turned out, Munoz missed three games in his first twelve seasons, but I'm still skeptical as a theoretical GM.)

Title Game Wrap-up

2010-01-08T17:30:00.000-08:00

In a disappointing title game, Alabama beat Texas, 37-21. Texas's Colt McCoy was knocked out on the first drive, and Garrett Gilbert threw a killer interception returned for a touchdown before halftime. The team rallied and got some shocking big plays in the middle of the defense.

Give credit to Nick Saban for adjusting on the fly. Alabama's defense bore down on Texas and got some key turnovers. Javier Arenas saw his stock fall, but Rolando McClain will certainly get drafted in the top 10. Maybe the Chiefs or Raiders? For Texas, you have to wonder what kind of point differential would his presence carry? Ten? Gilbert got some big game experience and that will be enough to give their team some hope next year.

Unfortunately, none of us got the game we wanted. Even Alabama fans have to admit this is not how they wanted to win a title. The next college football questions are: how high does Boise State rank in the 2010 preseason? How good will the Big 12 be, and could we see Nebraska ascend? Can the SEC win a fifth straight BCS title? Who is John Brantley?

BCS National Championship: Texas vs. Alabama

2010-01-06T12:09:00.000-08:00

College football fans have been itching for this game for almost a year and a half. Remember last November, when it looked like Alabama and Texas were on an intractable collision course? Then, Oklahoma snuck in on a quirky tie-breaker, and Florida came back in the fourth quarter of the SEC Championship. On Thursday night, we get to see this brawl between #1 Alabama and #2 Texas.

I don't typically like to break down games into match-ups. For instance, usually, a team doesn't win because they have a good secondary and linebacking group. It wins because the secondary and linebackers play well together. Both of these teams have played very disciplined for the first thirteen games, especially Alabama's defense. Suddenly, Alabama is producing dream players for the 3-4 alignment.

The history between the coaches is fascinating, too. Alabama's defensive coordinator Kirby Smart served under Texas's defensive coordinator, before both of them worked on Nick Saban's staff at LSU. The question mark: how successful is Texas's offensive coordinator Greg Davis against that defense. One indicator might be the 2007 Alamo Bowl, in which Texas faced off against Kirk Ferentz's Iowa team. (Ferentz basically runs the same 3-4 scheme as Saban, with less blitzing.) Colt McCoy was shaky in the early going, with two interceptions, but rallied and won 26-24. McCoy had running back Jamaal Charles (he of record-setting Chiefs fame) then, but I think Texas's running back corps is underrated.

Texas might not be the best team in the country, but they couldn't have wished for a more advantageous draw from the contenders. Their version of the spread, with heavy use of flood concepts, is made to attack the zone coverages that Saban and Smart believe in. (A further twist: both teams would be lucky not to give up some big special teams plays.) Alabama has played only one team (two, if you count Florida) in the last two years that has the passing proficiency that Texas has, and they lost. Utah won the Sugar Bowl decisively.

Alabama has never beaten Texas, going 0-7-1 all-time. I'm going with history, Texas beats Alabama, 30-17.

BCS Bowl Game Preview

2009-12-31T14:04:00.001-08:00

The 2010 Bowl Season is upon us, and, even though each bowl season has come to feel endless (in a bad way), I'm excited. For the last few years, I've been disappointed by some of the match-ups (Illinois-USC two years ago, Texas-Ohio State last year). Maybe fans should redirect their outrage from the BCS to the bowl selection committees. But, I say with regained composure, I'm excited. Here are the five BCS bowl games, and how I see them playing out:

January 1, 2010: Sugar Bowl - Florida vs. Cincinnati

This game pits the most overhyped team (2009 Gators) against the least hyped undefeated team I've ever seen (2009 Bearcats). When I've heard anyone suggest that the Bearcats might beat Alabama or Texas, that same person says it so slyly the boast might be understood as a practical joke. Watching the Bearcats evolve over the last season, watching them absorb misfortune after misfortune, has convinced me that they win despite the fact that they're the last stop on the Tim Tebow and (maybe) Urban Meyer Farewell Tour. I predict a cozy and high-scoring victory for Cincinnati, 45-21.

January 1, 2010: Rose Bowl -Oregon vs. Ohio State

This is secretly one of the best games of the bowl season. Both teams overcame media debacles at the start of the season, and won their respective better-than-anticipated conferences. Though Tressel's squad has lost three consecutive BCS bowls, Ohio State showed up in last year's Fiesta Bowl with a great performance. No one is certain what to expect from Chip Kelly at this point in his career, so the game should give us a good barometer of where these teams are going in the new decade. I pick Oregon in a surprisingly high-scoring game, 31-28.

January 4, 2010: Fiesta Bowl - Boise State vs. TCU

I'll be honest. I haven't gotten to see a complete game for either of these teams. So I'll keep the punditry to a minimum. I love watching Boise State, I believe TCU to have a great defense. Both coaches seem like they're committed to their mid-major for the long haul, and they will see the BCS cartel fall within their careers. The game goes to overtime and TCU wins, 35-31.

January 2, 2010: Orange Bowl - Iowa vs. Georgia Tech

Strange that I have picked so many of these games as high-scoring, but you don't get to the BCS table without some explosive playmakers. Unless you play great defense and adequate offense in the Big 10 (Iowa), and unless you mop up with weaker ACC teams with a well-executed and fresh scheme (Georgia Tech). What might have happened if Georgia Tech had played Miami later in the season? What might have happened if Rick Stanzi had not gotten injured? We'll never know. Iowa wins, 24-14.

Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints

2009-12-31T12:40:00.000-08:00

Here's my new column, on the Saints-Cowboys game:

What the Saints Can Learn

New Column

2009-12-10T14:09:00.000-08:00

Here's a new article, on the Mississippi State-UCLA basketball game:

http://www.jacksonfreepress.com/index.php/site/comments/state_goes_to_la_la_land_120909/

The Blind Side Movie Review

2009-12-04T12:35:00.000-08:00

I dropped in to see The Blind Side last night, and was very pleasantly surprised. I was a big fan of Michael Lewis's book but had been skeptical of its adaptability and the way the movie had been marketed. The book spent more time exploring the history of football over the last twenty years, and the movie (perhaps wisely) cut most of that.

The Blind Side is a genuine tearjerker. Usually, that term is thrown around pejoratively, insinuating that a movie has left the audience with an exploited, used feeling. But some movies come by their sentiment honestly, and The Blind Side is just such a movie. It is not simply a sad story because Michael Oher is abandoned or because he comes from a bad neighborhood. It's an emotionally complicated story, ruminating on guilt, violence, resentment, race, and gender. Like the book, it falls apart about three-quarters of the way through: it doesn't have the neat symmetry of fiction, after all.

The casting is good, though I only dimly understand why Quinton Aaron was chosen for the role of Michael Oher. Oher himself does not have the doughy innocent features of Aaron, and I can only guess that he was chosen because he doesn't convey a smidgin of violence at all. (At Ole Miss, Oher did get into some trouble off the field.)

John Lee Hancock, the film's screenwriter and director, deserves the credit though. Oddly enough, I watched A Perfect World (a movie he wrote and Clint Eastwood directed) the night before. I was struck by its genuine emotional weight, too, and it's clearly the better movie. With both screenplays, Hancock explores the relationship between adults and children and the violence meted out by both. I think he deserves a lot more attention than he's gotten so far.

2009 College Football Rankings

2009-12-02T16:58:00.000-08:00

These are my humble rankings for the week of December 1, 2009:

1. Alabama
2. Texas
3. Florida
4. Cincinnati
5. Boise State
6. TCU
7. Oregon
8. Iowa
9. Georgia Tech
10. Pittsburgh
11. Virginia Tech
12. Ohio State
13. BYU
14. Miami
15. LSU
16. Penn State
17. Houston
18. Oklahoma State
19. Oregon State
20. Stanford
21. Nebraska
22. West Virgina
23. Clemson
24. California
25. Utah

Teams that have good reason to complain about this ranking: TCU, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Nebraska, Houston, Ohio State
Teams that don't: LSU, Miami, Virginia Tech, Stanford, Ohio State

New England Patriots at New Orleans Saints (11/30/09)

2009-12-01T15:39:00.000-08:00

Monday night, Tom Brady brought his explosive offense into the Superdome to play the unbeaten New Orleans Saints. While watching the game, I considered how both have evolved their strategic approaches in the last three years. New England has incorporated spread concepts into their offense, and, this season, the defense New Orleans has taken on the identity of new coordinator Gregg Williams. It leads me to reflect on how and when strategic adjustments should be made.

The Saints defense has been the team's most improved area this season. Even with both starting corners out, and free agents castaways at corner, they attacked the Pats shotgun-spread. Williams is not going to wait for Mike McKenzie, Chris McAlister, and rookie Malcolm Jenkins to catch up. He's committed absolutely to his scheme. Remember that the Pats, too, have remained loyal to their scheme, since switching to it in 2007. That zealous committment seemed to catch up to them in the 2008 Super Bowl. Will we see the same for Williams's defense?

Offensively, the Saints relied on max-protect schemes (sometimes only sending two receivers into routes). With left tackle Jammal Brown out, the adjustment seemed warranted. On the other side, there's the Patriots defense. In the offseason, the Patriots adapted their defensive schemes to new personnel, chuffing aside Belicheck's effective 3-deep and 4-deep zone coverage schemes. This season, they have relied on man coverage more often and, against New Orleans, it cost them. Throughout the game, receivers broke free, sometimes against zone and sometimes against man. Commentators have blamed the youth and inexperience of the Pats backfield, but that's never stopped them before (see the long list of rookie contributors in the Pats' run to three titles). Have the off-season schematic adjustments created some uncertainty in that once reliable backfield?

2009 Egg Bowl: Ole Miss at Mississippi State

2009-12-01T15:15:00.000-08:00

Mississippi State exploited the edge against Ole Miss's ends as I suggested they would here: http://www.jacksonfreepress.com/jfp.php/comments/an_appetizing_egg_bowl_112509.

Even though Ole Miss was able to allow their defensive ends to get upfield and cause havoc the week before (against LSU), the Rebels front was not able to slow down the option game. When State went to the air, they used "flood" concepts to beat the Rebel's aggressive defensive backfield.

Defensively, the Bulldogs also came up with three interceptions against Jevan Snead. Ole Miss will return next year with a bare cupboard, and State returns a lot of young talent. A swing in power within Mississippi?

New Column

2009-11-15T12:19:00.000-08:00

Hoping this link works better when pasted into box. Also, disabled Hindu transliteration, which should make composing on Blogger easier!

http://www.jacksonfreepress.com/index.php/site/comments/a_dark_side_to_glory_111109/

New Column

2009-11-13T10:24:00.000-08:00

Here is a link to my latest column in JFP:
http://www।jacksonfreepress।com/index।php/site/comments/a_dark_side_to_glory_111109/

Should Pitchers Call Their Own Pitches?

2009-11-04T11:15:00.001-08:00

Recently, I've been reading a lot of Malcolm Gladwell of The New Yorker. One of his books, Blink, argues that the preconscious responses of specialists can be pretty good. One marriage counselor can predict whether your marriage will work from a 5-minute conversation (to 95% accuracy), but his accuracy slides lower as he talks to the couple more. Gladwell is not arguing for the validity of rash and wild predictions but finds authority in the instincts of well-trained individuals.

Amind the Cole Hamels fiasco, I began to consider one of the strategies in baseball, with Gladwell's observations in mind. Traditionally, the pitcher (picture the grizzled veteran, played by Kevin Costner) controls the pace and structure of a game by "calling" the throws made by the pitcher (picture the impetuous youth, played by Tim Robbins). It is suggested that the catcher has a better sense of the larger chess moves in the game (base runners, placement of fielders, etc.) and a less involved perspective (the pitcher is distracted by pitch counts, the mental game with the batters, etc.). The catcher can survey the entire playing field, which is also considered an advantage. But perhaps Gladwell's observations might construe it as the opposite? Could the catcher's elevated responsibilites actually obstruct the success of the team's defense by making the game less instinctive and more cerebral?

I would welcome any feedback, examples, or anything else on this. I'm still pitching the prospective idea around.

Predicting NFL Success

2009-11-04T11:10:00.000-08:00

Advanced NFL stats has put together a spiffy new way of predicting the future success of NFL teams. The goal is to calculate the probability that a team would beat an average team at a neutral site, from offensive and defensive stats against factors like penalty rates.

It would be interesting to see if Indianapolis, New Orleans, and Denver are there at the end, and if Minnesota is overrated.

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/10/efficiency-rankings-week-8.html

Discussion

2009-11-02T12:48:00.000-08:00

Just to let you know, we're having a lively discussion over here:

http://www.jacksonfreepress.com/index.php/site/comments/response_to_an_irrelevant_blogger/

Promotion

2009-10-30T11:41:00.000-07:00

Here's the link to my first column in the JFP, a all-around good rag.

http://www.jacksonfreepress.com/index.php/site/comments/the_irregular_season_102809/

NFL Progress Reports

2009-10-23T16:56:00.000-07:00

One of my favorite aspects of the professional games is roster management. Perhaps because I have played Madden in Franchise mode for too long, I have followed the movement and development of talent in the NFL closely for the better half of the last decade, sometimes more closely than scores and victories. With the salary cap in place, the annual draft carries the most weight for a team’s success (especially over the long term).

That bloggers jump to premature conclusions is a fair criticism, and I am not exception. How is the 2009 Draft shaping up in retrospect? How does a good draft or a bad draft shape a team’s immediate success? By taking a look at the drafts of the two of the most surprising and two of the most disappointing teams, maybe we can discern a few trends.

Minnesota Vikings (6-0)

Key picks: WR Percy Harvin (20 catches, 243 receiving yards), OT Phil Loadholt (6 starts)

The biggest surprise of this young season for me is the emergence of rookie wide receiver Percy Harvin. I was skeptical of his NFL potential because of questions regarding his college system, attitude, and health, but he has emerged as a young versatile talent for the Vikings to pair with RB Adrian Peterson for years. (I was very big on WR Hakeem Nicks, who has turned out to be just as good, and maybe more explosive, for the New York Giants). As big an acquisition as QB Brett Favre has been, Phil Loadholt has surprisingly contributed great production for one of the league’s best offensive lines. Both players were featured in their dramatic comeback victory against San Francisco in the third week of the season.

New Orleans Saints (5-0)

Key picks: CB Malcolm Jenkins (1 recovered fumble), P Thomas Morstead (43.9 average)

Two-fourths of the Saints’ 2009 draft was lost to injury in training camp. The early success of the Saints is driven by veterans (CB Jabari Greer and S Darren Sharper), so the concern is whether they can sustain their high level of play throughout the postseason and into future seasons. If they can’t, that means their high cap number and the less experienced draft picks could limit the team’s flexibility in the future.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-6)

Key picks: QB Josh Freeman (0 starts), Roy Miller (14 tackles, 1 sack)

If Jon Gruden’s history was any indication, similar results would have been in store for the Bucs whether Raheem Morris was the head coach or not. Still, the Bucs’ investment into WRs Michael Clayton (11 catches, 154 yards) and Antonio Byrant (14 catches, 178 yards) looks more puzzling every game that rookie seventh-round pick Sammie Stroughter basically matches their performance (13 catches, 151 yards). The Bucs look like they hit on multiple picks but the trade of disappointing DE Gaines Adams and the questionable maturity of QB Josh Freeman make me wonder how bright the future really is.

Tennessee Titans (0-6)

Key picks: WR Kenny Britt (289 receiving yards), DT Sen’Derrick Marks (1 tackle)

The puzzler for me is why Head Coach Jeff Fisher refuses to put quarterback Vince Young on the field. Nevertheless, when I looked at the stats, I was surprised to see that the Titans have actually been committed to a youth movement this year. Players such as Jason McCourty and Jared Cook are getting valuable experience. Still, in the absense of Albert Haynesworth, they could use more push in the middle of the line from Marks or second-year players Jason Jones (3 sacks) and William Hayes (1.5 sacks).This year, the results are bad, but I think they are in line for another double-digit winning season next year.

Conclusion

Free agency has played a bigger factor so far. Other winning teams that are getting great minutes from rookies include the Cincinnati Bengals (OT Andre Smith) and the New York Jets (QB Mark Sanchez). I look forward to returning to this issue during the playoffs to see how our young stars are performing.

Baseball Olympic No More: Why the American Pastime was Left Stranded

2009-10-13T10:44:00.000-07:00

This year, the media watched for news emerging from the 2009 International Olympic Committee as if Mayan prophecies and Dan Brown-like revelations would be stashed in its decisions. Disappointingly, Chicago lost its bid to become a host city in 2016. And golf and rugby would replace baseball and softball as Olympic competition sports (which will not be one in 2012, either). Several (more or less coherent) explanations have arisen. In this entry of The Irregular Season, I’ll be addressing a few of them. I’ll start with the most absurd and try to move toward the most convincing.

3. The IOC has an anti-American bias

Conservative columnist George Will is one person among many that has made the claim that the structure and style of baseball itself reflects American ideology. Since each player has an equal opportunity to effect the game’s outcome (as batters), so the argument goes, it profoundly echoes the egalitarian ethos of American culture. Famously, at the first introduction of baseball to an Olympic audience (at the 1936 “Jesse Owens” Olympics in Berlin), several German generals demanded that the American batters not swing for right field, where Hitler was sitting. Dow Jones, a 19-year-old outfielder from Iowa, recounts that the players bristled at the order and began targeting, with some mix of moral or nationalist indignation and professional pride, the Führer specifically.

Personally, I’m fascinated by these sorts of questions—“Does the game distill Americanness” and so forth—but find most of the answers limited or weak. (Which ideological echoes resonate for Japan [which has won the last several gold medals] might be the more compelling question right now.) “Anti-American” sentiment is really a catch-all for the various competing values that the U.S. has come to represent and embody: capitalism, globalism, corporate culture, representative democracies, secularism, anti-secularism, militarism, etc. The IOC and its member countries is so specifically committed to those same values, that only a vague and bitter prejudice would actually work systematically against the U.S.’s bid for the Games and other interests.

Reasonability: C

2. Baseball poses extensive logistical problems that make it unappealing.

Since baseball poses unique challenges (games run over, games occur during the traditional MLB season), there are very good reasons that they shouldn’t be forced into the tight, mechanized schedule of the Games. In fact, baseball often reminds me of the variability of athletic endeavor more than other sports: batting (and pitching and winning and losing) streaks, home-field advantage, and on and on. How do those factors curb international interest by unnaturally constraining that variability?

I find the argument faulty for one big reason: these are all problems that could be addressed by simple rule changes that would chafe the traditionalists. Among them: an upper limit on extra innings, the cooperation of MLB. Perhaps best of all and least possible? Replacing the dead-dull All-Star game with some sort of Olympic play-in series.

Reasonability: B-

1. No one has really made the great case for Olympic baseball.

Choosing Olympic baseball over other sports results in lower revenue and TV ratings, globally. The case that the IOC should sacrifice either in order to give exposure and opportunity to professional ballplayers and the sport seems kind of absurd given the atmosphere of current geo-politics. But there is no doubt that eliminating the sport from competition personally offends many sports fans stateside. Even though many elite American players don’t compete. Even though international team sports competitions (except Olympic basketball) don’t seem to interest U.S. fans particularly: Cubans were in greater uproar over the decision than Americans. In 2004, the U.S. team did not even qualify, as the only North or South American team to qualify was Cuba. Bud Seelig and MLB, in a short-sighted way, have spotlighted the World Classic to the disadvantage of any other competition.

None of the Olympic sports carry the kind of nationalist charge that they did in the 1930s and 1980s, and profit is now the greatest virtue of the games. Winning or losing the game, and especially not playing a specific game, does not energize the fan base. Consider it a natural result of globalization.

Reasonability: B +

Overtime: Or, The Best Reason For the Olympic Baseball

The excitement of watching clashing international styles (small ball vs. power, etc.). Seemingly, there has been little drama recently in Olympic sports: much of the pleasure in following the 1992 Dream Team or Michael Phelps was watching them crush opponents. The Olympics really are great comparative studies in opposing styles and their merits on a scale that most national leagues are not capable or willing to explore.

One example of this: it’s often proposed that MLB baseball has boiled down a team sport into an individual sport, and the pressure of the Games forces baseball back into a true team dynamic. Every four years, we see a subtle shift in American basketball strategy when the U.S. team faces off against the world’s best. And, ironically, that renews the sport’s commitment to foundational values.

Game Preview: New York Jets at New Orleans Saints

2009-10-03T19:52:00.001-07:00

The only match-up of undefeated teams this weekend features some intriguing plotlines. Drew Brees, who nearly broke the NFL record for yardage and may actually do it this year, will face a defense that ranks second in points allowed. The Jets head coach Rex Ryan features an aggressive, blitzing defense that has frustrated three quarterbacks with a combined twenty-eight years of NFL experience and five Super Bowl appearances. But it hasn’t faced a receiving corps as deep nor a release as quick as the one Brees brings with him into this game.

There are some parallels to 1985, when a tough Chicago defense swaggered into the Orange Bowl for a late regular-season game with Dan Marino’s Miami Dolphins. Rex Ryan’s father, the legendary defensive coordinator Bud Ryan had conceived the 46 defense (named after #46 Doug Plank) for a defense that boasted four Hall-of-Famers and would lead the team through a dominating Super Bowl run. Bud Ryan would be carried off the field along with head coach Mike Ditka.

On December 2, 1985, however, that Chicago team was bested, 38-24, by a third-year quarterback with a fast release. Marino had already broken the yardage record and won league MVP the previous year, his second in the league. The Bears defense, which featured linebackers like Mike Singletary that were ineffective in pass coverage, looked baffled and mediocre that night, but would rally the rest of the way to become perhaps the greatest unit in NFL history.

This parallel might be strained: Brees is not Marino; Rex Ryan’s Jets defense is more athletic; and neither team, as of yet, is guaranteed a long run through the playoffs. Looking back on this game in December, we might see two 7-7 teams or two 12-2 teams. All the same, this game will shape those fortunes more than any other in the first month. Will an improved Saints defense handle the rookie, Mark Sanchez? How will their two aggressive play-callers, Ryan and Saints head coach Sean Payton, attack each other?

I would like to look at the ways Ryan has frustrated the opposing quarterback first, and then examine some of the ways Payton and Brees will try to counteract that defense. In Tom Brady’s second regular-season game since his knee surgery and recovery, Ryan harassed Brady with basic arithmetic and outstanding athleticism. Early in the first quarter, before the snap, Ryan’s defense showed an eight-man front and Brady chose to keep seven blockers in with three receivers running vertical routes. When Ryan chooses to bring seven defenders, four to the offense’s right side, the offensive line fails to slide and pick up the extra blitzers. Brady throws a pass up to Randy Moss (who should probably win against the smaller Darrelle Revis) but the pass is intercepted. The Patriots offensive line usually relies on dual reads: most of their offensive line will read multiple defenders to see if they blitz. If both blitz, then the quarterback should take a shorter pass, rather than risk a sack. At the end of this play, one player (tight end Benjamin Watson) will have two players to block and another (guard Logan Mankins) no one to block.

In the second week of the season, Drew Brees faced a typically aggressive Eagles defense that blitzed about six defenders most of the time. Against the blitz, Brees made accurate downfield throws. On one key third down in the third quarter, needing eleven yards, Brees faced nine men in the middle of the field, with each receiver locked down by a cornerback with no safety help. Before the snap, he looks almost excited about the coverage. Brees takes a seven-step drop, and the line caves in, but he completes a 31 yard wheel route to the left sideline to Devery Henderson, just out of the reach of Sheldon Brown. Importantly, Henderson lined up almost fifteen yards from the sideline, giving the opportunity of “pulling away” to the left, from the defender.

Unlike Brady, who was recovering from surgery and looked skittish in the pocket, Brees will relish the opportunity to throw against single man coverage, even if he takes a few hits while standing in the pocket. However, unlike the Lions defense (week one) and the Bills defense (week three), the Jets will not allow him to slide in the pocket, reload, and throw on the run. Though they have made explosive plays in the first few weeks, the key plays in this game will be the five yard dump-offs that sustain drives.

Book Review: About Three Bricks Shy of A Full Load by Roy Blount, Jr.

2009-10-01T19:23:00.000-07:00

I was directed to this book by one of the better articles on the state of professional football by a non-sports journalist. That essayist, Adam Gopnik, who writes in the long-established New Yorker style (intellectualized, precise, etc.), casually recommended Blount's book as one of the great works of non-fiction on the sport. About Three Bricks documents the 1973 season of the Pittsburgh Steelers. If you have read Gopnik, you can see the attraction: Blount does not indulge in strategy or jargon, and maintains the kind of bemused distance characteristic of, say, Joseph Mitchell's "Profiles" columns. There isn't a lot of penetrating reporting here, but there are great personality sketches and a refreshing take on the sport. (One of the weaknesses Gopnik points to is Blount's avoidance of the steroid innovation and use by the 1970s Steelers.)

Blount brings a perspective, a kind of popular sociology, to the professional football landscape. As I mentioned, the character sketches are great: Chuck Noll, Art Rooney, Terry Bradshaw, Jack Lambert, and even 1950s Steelers coach Buddy Parker are caught in unusual and fascinating lights. I also found Blount's observations on how race shaped the franchise and period refreshing. For instance, many of the players suspected each other of one expression of racism or another, with Bradshaw accusing Noll himself of favoring African American players. Of course, Noll's greatest asset was his unprejudiced eye for talent: he drafted Hall of Fame players from traditionally African American schools like Alabama A & M (John Stallworth), commuter schools like the North Texas State University (Joe Greene), and traditional football powers like USC (Lynn Swann) and Wisconsin (Mike Webster).

Apparently, the author of About Three Bricks was lucky in three ways that raise a book from curiosity piece to a vital read for any one interested in the sport's history. First, this book captures the sport and its management at a time when it was shifting into modernity. The antics of Parker are drawn in sharp contrast to the professionalism of Noll. Second, Blount chose the Steelers over the Rams and other teams for two seemingly arbitrary reasons: the 1973 Immaculate Reception (which he saw on live television) and the fact he shared his last name with the great cornerback Mel Blount. As it turned out, he drew a team that would win four Super Bowls over the next decade, gaining a loyal, nation-wide fan base in the process. The third reason that this book stands out as an important read is what might seem to be a weakness to some: Blount does not narrow his focus to the starters or to the coaching and ownership side of the organization. There are chapters on scouting and long passages about backup offensive linemen, that would not have found their way into other books on professional football in the period. (In hindsight, with scouting and management now featured on SportsCenter and debated at the water cooler, this is a great virtue.) But Blount's attraction to this aspect of the game is rooted in his fascination with the marginal talent, the guy with the great nickname and dazzling personality struggling to make a career of professional football, and not the celebrated stars. That sympathy raises this book finally to a terrific accomplishment in the genre.

Book Review: Meat Market: Inside the Smash-Mouth World of College Football Recruiting by Bruce Feldman

2009-09-26T12:43:00.000-07:00

Meat Market focuses on one recruiting season for the University of Mississippi’s football program. Under the guidance of head coach (and former recruiting guru) Ed Orgeron, the Ole Miss program is expected to land top ten classes, then eventually top ten regular-season rankings. In the recruiting world, that year (2007) seemed like something imagined by Ionesco, fore-grounded by Jimmy Clausen’s stretch Hummer limousine and four national titles in South Bend.

A regular ESPN contributor, Bruce Feldman writes in the style of the fifteen-minute Sportscenter segment: clearly composed, well-researched, superficial. There are no shocking revelations, even if the exact methods of circumventing NCAA rules make some fans uncomfortable. More disappointingly, Feldman does not analyze (question?) some of the presumptions in recruiting circles, as Michael Lewis (and Billy Beane) did in Moneyball.

Most fans will find the process of evaluating high school prospects informative. How does one 320-lb. defensive tackle grade out as five-star, while this one grades out as two-star? The frequent accuracy of professional scouting is undeniable, but greater insight into the trade might have been given by a different author. As I suggested earlier, at USC, Orgeron gained a reputation for finding “creative” ways to enroll players with questionable GPAs. Frankly, I don’t have a problem with it; once a player enrolls however, they should pursue a credible course of study.

The most interesting passages of the book, aside from the outrageous second-hand accounts of Orgeron’s locker-room antics, are the exchanges between the head coach and his recruiting/coaching staff. One recruiter brags that he will be able to land the most coveted running back in the country (He doesn’t). A different recruiter slowly finds himself on thin ice after failing to land one targeted player, after another. Between reviewing their targeted prospects, Orgeron and his staff will watch in a tape of the very best 18-year-old prospects (which are beyond his reach), which leaves the room of adult men salivating.

The 2007 recruiting cycle was the last Orgeron engineered as head coach. (He is now recruiting coordinator and defensive line coach at Tennessee.) What Feldman suggests in the last chapter of his book (that Orgeron would need to win in 2007 to see the real fruition of his recruiting successes in 2008 and 2009) has been realized: Houston Nutt led Ole Miss to a preseason top five ranking. In an upset loss to Steve Spurrier’s South Carolina squad, I watched a defense stocked by Orgeron and his staff keep the Rebels in a close game by harassing Stephen Garcia for most of the game.

Strategy Session: How Two-Quarterback Systems Work (09/25/09)

2009-09-25T12:49:00.000-07:00

“If you have two quarterbacks, you have none.” Among football pundits, this has become a tautology used against any coach that sees some merit in changing quarterbacks over the course of a season, a quarter, or even a series. The drawbacks are obvious: each quarterback will have varying degrees of experience and composure, a unique skill set, and an approach to attacking a defense informed by those factors. For a passer, subtle changes in ball placement and velocity can derail an offensive gameplan. (From the flip perspective, it’s hard to believe that a coach and a coordinator would have the same confidence in both to run the complete offense.)

But at least two programs have had tremendous success with a two-quarterback system in the last two college football seasons. In looking at LSU and Utah, the benefits strike me as more persuasive than those drawbacks. In 2007, Les Miles alternated between Matt Flynn (a fifth-year senior) and the more athletic Ryan Perrilloux (a third-year sophomore). And Miles and offensive coordinator Gary Crowton did not allow the situation dictate whether Flynn or Perrilloux would be on the field. Flynn led the team back in the fourth quarter against Alabama, and Perrilloux, though almost exclusively used as a running threat, was taking snaps at the beginning of the fourth quarter against Florida - a game in which LSU would score two touchdowns in a late rally (see clip). Perrilloux’s experience would be vital as he would start in place of an injured Flynn the SEC championship against Tennessee. Then, he did not see the field in the National Championship game against Ohio State. (That decision was curious, as the Buckeyes had shown a weakness against mobile quarterbacks, in their only loss of the season, to Juice Williams and the Rose Bowl-bound Illini. But the Tigers prevailed, 38-24, anyway.) Statistically, Perrilloux attempted 25 % as much as Flynn.

Similarly, Kyle Whittingham’s Utah Utes won the 2009 Sugar Bowl against the Alabama Crimson Tide, scoring 31 points (the most that had been scored against the SEC runner-up all season). Though Brian Johnson would get most of the attention (as much attention as the Utes would get), the first touchdown was scored on a designed quarterback draw by his back-up Corbin Louks against the Michigan Wolverines. Statistically, Louks would only attempt seven passes but he would be third on the team in carries (27) and yards (213), with a long of 69 yards. The Mountain West Conference champion would finish #2 overall in the final AP poll.

The offenses of the 2007 Tigers and 2008 Utes were two-quarterback systems that worked, and they worked by careful attention to game situation and play design. (For instance, both Louks and Perilloux would occasionally throw downfield off the option play.) Perhaps more importantly, a coordinator and coach would also have to handle the confidence (or ego) of both players. But the goal of this entry will be strictly Xs and Os.

One of the major struggles so far for the 2009 Tigers is managing a similar quarterback situation, between second-year starter Jordan Jefferson and first-year five-star recruit Russell Shepard. Already, some have questioned how well Shepard (as a run-only threat) is being used. (From what I’ve seen, I doubt that the humble Shepard is disgruntled.) How did these two previous conference champions use the two-quarterback system as an asset in tightly-contested games to their advantage?

In the first clip, offensive coordinator calls a fake reverse option to the left. Early in the first quarter, against #9 Florida’s young, aggressive defense, the call works well for a first down. The Gators load up the box on Perrilloux, predominately used as a running threat, but bite on the fake reverse, clearing a lane for Perrilloux and the option man, Keiland Williams.

When Crowton calls a similar play early in the fourth quarter, the line is unbalanced to the running side (the right this time). Not only will the Tigers probably run the ball, they can only run the ball. The Gators are in good position, but this time the math privileges the Tigers, who gain another first down with the play.

As simple as this strategy is, the last two years is littered with teams that have mismanaged their quarterback situation, including Miami (with Jacory Harris and Robert Marve) and Virginia Tech (with Tyrod Taylor and Sean Glennon). Altogether benching one of those players (as Jim Tressel did with Todd Boeckman) should also qualify as a botched strategy.

Fast-forward to the 2009 LSU Tigers. To this point, Shepard has not attempted a pass, averaging 6.9 yard per rushing attempt on 7 carries. The chief concern with involving Shepard in the passing game more is that Jordan Jefferson has been overly cautious with the ball, choosing to manage games against three unranked teams rather than challenging their defensive backs down field. Whether the Tigers feature Shepard in big games or not, their offensive success will be predicated on Jefferson willingness to do so.